What do ambiguous threats and recovery windows have to do with courageous project management?

The Columbia space shuttle disaster of 2003 provided a particularly poignant example for some work done at the Harvard Business School by Amy C. Edmundson, Michael A. Roberto, and Richard M. J. Bohmer[1].  The loss of the ship and all crew members was found to be the result of a foam strike upon launch.  There had been a twenty-year history of such strikes, although this one appeared to be a particularly large piece that may have been capable of causing structural damage.  Asking the CIA to divert some spy satellites to take pictures of the exterior of the shuttle, and ultimately launching a rescue shuttle, would have been the only decisions that might have altered the course of this particular history.  No one seemed individually prepared to argue strongly for either action.  When the decision was made to wait until after re-entry to complete the examination, the fate of the crew was sealed.

What has this got to do with courageous project management?  The Harvard researchers described two phenomena in decision-making within organizations:  ambiguous threats – risks that may have an outcome that is completely unacceptable – and recovery windows – that period of time beyond which no recovery is possible, regardless of subsequent actions.

Does that sound familiar in the project management world?  Looking back on disasters we have been close to, wasn’t it obvious that success was unobtainable unless the poor estimate, inadequate team skills, lack of key sponsorship, or whatever other critical factor was in play had been addressed early and quickly?

I have written before on the topic of courage for project managers.  Let me explore one aspect of the dynamics at play – the apparent powerlessness that project managers face. 

Typically, executives are placing direct or indirect coercive pressure on project managers to “just do it”.  And yet, I believe that it is the project manager with a track record of successful delivery who holds the real power.  Imagine the response if any of us were to stand up and say, “I cannot be successful unless we take the following actions within this specific time frame.  If that can’t happen, you need to find a project manager who you believe can do it.  I am not that person.”  I believe that nine times out of ten, the executives will respond as we need them to, because they know in their fat little hearts that we are right.  In the case of the other one time, we don’t want to be anywhere near the pending disaster anyway.

Acting courageously is easier when you know you’re right and you know you have power.  As you think about your next project, evaluate the ambiguous threats, determine the recovery window for corrective actions, and know that you are the power player in altering the course of this project’s history.